DE-LU · AT · FR · BR SE/CO · S · NE · N
Spotcast forecasts hourly day-ahead electricity prices for Germany, Austria and France — and the hourly PLD (Brazil's spot price) for Brazil's four submarkets — then scores every forecast against the official published prices, in public. Hits, misses, everything. The forecast log is append-only: nothing can be rewritten after the fact.
Live market
EU auction results refresh daily from Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD data; Brazilian PLD from CCEE open data. The forecast line comes from the logged output of the zone's shipped model — where both lines exist, the gap between them is the model's error.
Track record
Every day the logged forecast is scored against the officially published prices. The log is append-only: forecasts cannot be edited after the fact. Days flagged issued late were logged after that day's prices were already public (the model's inputs are cut off a day earlier regardless, but you shouldn't have to take that on faith). Shipped model for this zone: GBM.
Method
A gradient-boosted model trained on years of published prices, using only calendar features and price lags of 24 hours or more — so a forecast for tomorrow can never see tomorrow. It runs daily before each market's publication (the EU day-ahead auction and CCEE's PLD for Brazil) and is always reported next to two baselines: naive (tomorrow repeats today) and seasonal-naive (tomorrow repeats last week). Where a baseline still beats the GBM in the committed backtest — currently the Brazilian NE and N submarkets — the baseline is what we ship, and the page says so. Every number here comes from the market archive or the append-only forecast log; where there is no data, the page says that instead.